Learning about research and information in the Covid-19 pandemic. No.5 Finding and using statistics

Finding and using statistics

During the Covid-19 pandemic, many of us have been watching the daily briefing from the government and a regular part of this has been reporting on the number of cases and deaths as well as displaying a number of graphs.

Statistics (or data) are more than just numbers and have been used to predict the need for more hospital provision, PPE, to look for the peak of the infection, the "flattening of the curve" and to inform government decisions about social distancing, for example. We've seen they can tell a story, they can help us understand what is happening, they can show trends and inform theories.

Statistics however, are just numbers without context. The number of Covid deaths, though large and too many (especially for those directly affected), on their own mean nothing unless you can compare this to the normal expected death rate last year, for example. We also need to know what is being counted. Only recently have care home deaths been included in the figures.

Statistics have been used to compare and contrast. We have been able to see the UK death rate in comparison to other countries. They meant decision-makers drew similarities between the UK and Italy for example at the beginning of the epidemic. However, at the same time, statistics are to be viewed with caution. No one will truly understand what the statistics mean until the pandemic is over and lessons can be learned. Statistics ideally should be viewed with some analysis.

In the video below from the BC's Andrew Marr Show, Professor David Spiegelhalter (an expert) talks about the whole complex issue of using statistics during the Coronavirus crisis and why numbers on their own aren't always helpful. Also, he discusses how statistics can be used to help measure risk and put things in perspective.


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Using statistics in your research and assignments.

• Statistics are great sources to use for showing the scale of a problem or issue you are writing about and to make comparisons. Use them to show trends over time and predictions.
• Make sure you get your statistics from reputable sources. ONS (Office of National Statistics) collate a lot of information and make it available on their website. Specialist organisations e.g. charities also collect data on their particular area of expertise.
• It is worth checking what the numbers mean.  What definition was used to identify what was counted? For example, Mintel (a marketing database UCP students can access) uses information from MORI polls and outlines this on the website. 
• UCP students also have access to a database called Statista. By using this resource you know the statistics have come from reputable sources. Analysis is provided too and it has a section devoted to directing users to publications and websites where they can find statistics online for free.
• If you have a lot of data, try to present it in a graph or pie chart. Visual representation usually means more to the reader (and uses less words!). Try different types until you find the one which makes your point best.
• Always show where you have got your statistics from (i.e. reference).
• Be aware that people with an agenda may use and even manipulate statistics  to bolster their argument. Think critically as you read.
• Be wary of making statistics say what you want them to say - unless they really do. 

LRC Lockdown Book Review Competition

Book Review Competition 

We are running a Book Review competition to see what PRC & UCP students have been reading during Lockdown. The prize for the best review, as judged by the LRC team, is a £10 Waterstones voucher; runners up will receive a book & book bag.

To enter students should email the LRC: lrc@peterborough.ac.uk with their book review, which can be written, drawn, photographed or videoed. Last date for entries is 31st May.

What have you been reading during Lockdown?

Tips for writing book reviews:

Writing a book review for the first time can be rather a daunting task. Try to imagine whilst you are writing that you are talking to a friend, who is asking you whether or not they should read the book.

Booktrust, UK based Reading Charity, asked Author Luisa Plaja, to share her top tips on how to review a book. 

https://www.booktrust.org.uk/books-and-reading/tips-and-advice/writing-tips/writing-tips-for-teens/how-to-write-a-book-review/

Whilst Book Riot, an independent editorial book site in America, recommended 6 steps to writing a book review.

https://bookriot.com/2019/02/14/how-to-write-a-book-review/

To enter the LRC Lockdown Book Review competition, we are happy for you to choose how you would like to review your book. If a written book review is not for you, how about:

Creating a piece of art inspired by the book that you have read, illustrating how the book made you feel.

Sending in a photo review, using props or your family members to act out the plot and to show your favourite scenes.

Or you might like to send in a video of your review.

Ultimately however you decide to review your book, we are looking forward to receiving your entries and seeing which books you have been reading.

Learning about research and information during the Covid-19 pandemic No.4 Avoid fake news, conspiracy theories and misinformation - evaluate!

Evaluate your information sources

The World Health Organisation has called the recent spread of false information an "infodemic" that is "spreading faster than the virus". There have been claims of 5G causing the virus, that it can be cured by eating bat soup, claims that the virus was manufactured in a lab in Wuhan and even the US president himself is reported to have suggested injecting disinfectant (although he says this was taken out of context).

This isn't anything new - Samuel Pepys in his diaries at the time of the Great Plague (1665-6) wrote about different rumours spreading and he himself was frightened to wear a wig in case it spread infection as these were made from the hair of plague victims.

We have posted previous posts about Fake News and although it is particularly an online phenomena, all resources should be evaluated. The tabloids, for example, are published, edited and available in print, but a lot of the information they report cannot necessarily be trusted.

Have a look at this BBC video to understand how misinformation spreads and how to stop it.

How does this relate to student research?

• When doing research, check your sources. You are looking mainly to use academic resources which are of good quality and written by experts. Opinions may vary but they are formed by people who know their subject.
• Library online databases are collections of articles and resources which come from reputable sources. Start here and you will avoid the rubbish.
• When using the web, look at who has written the information and which organisation the website represents (and are they credible? do they have a particular agenda?).
• If using social media, look for the tick to be sure you are reading the official feed or account. Also does it trace back to a trusted website?
• Where possible validate a theory or fact by finding it in more than one source. If someone quotes someone else, find the original source if you can.
• Also remember though that public perception and rumours are a valid aspect of any issue too. (Revolutions have started fuelled by such things). You may refer to fake news and conspiracy theories, for example, but you will need to explain them and remain objective.

Learning about research and information from the Covid-19 pandemic. No.3. Find the experts

Find the experts

Part of being a student is realising what you don't know, identifying what you need to know and who the best people/ authors are to learn from.

Throughout the pandemic, governments have been meeting with and taking advice from scientific experts. In the UK, at the daily Covid briefings, the representative from the Government will field medical questions, for example, to the Chief Medical Officer as he is the expert who knows about infectious diseases. Did you know that the Government even has a Database of Experts specifically for the Covid -19 pandemic? The Guardian ran an article on the 22nd March introducing the different experts advising governments around the world (if you can't see it all online search for it in our Gale FE News database). They may not be famous celebrities, but they are well-known within their field and are perhaps only now coming to the general public's attention.

However, this doesn't mean that we shouldn't use our brains. All of us and especially students need to exercise critical thinking. As we hear from the experts, we need to think about what they say. Different experts will have different opinions on the same information. They may come with bias, they may be influenced by something in their background or personality. Their subject of expertise will affect how they see something. They are still experts because they have built up a lot of knowledge/ experience in their field, but their opinion is theirs and others will differ. This is why it is best academic practice to read and use a range of experts. The government isn't consulting with just one expert about Covid-19, they are taking advice from a number and therein lies the power as all their expertise is harnessed to try and solve the problem of Covid-19.

The TED talk below discusses the use of experts in a wider context and suggests that in life it's sometimes you might not want to rely on the experts.

Finding the experts in your area of study

Like the government, you will need to go and find some credible authors who know and write about your topic.  For the expert database, Parliament are asking experts to upload their credentials so they can check them. As a student you may need to do similar checks.

Recognising the experts

• When looking for literature on your subject, you might notice that there are author names which come up a lot. They may have been mentioned by your lecturer.
• You may find certain names and works cited a lot within the literature. 
• If you search Google Scholar, you will find some authors' works are cited more often than others.
• You may find certain authors and their works listed in bibliographies at the end of useful articles and books. 
• Experts will refer to other experts they respect (even if they don't agree).

How do I test?

• Look at the blurb on the back of a book or within the book under an author profile.
• Where does the expert work? Expert academics and researchers will usually work or be linked to a University or research institute. Alternatively, they may have had a long career within a particular field.
• What projects have they worked on?
• What qualifications do they have?
• Have they written any books and have they been published by a well-known publisher?
• Do they contribute to journals?
• Are they a key member of any professional or official organisations?
• Do they have a Twitter account and if so who is following them? Do other key people mention them?
• Not all key authors will still be alive, but others may still refer often to their work.

Finally, remember that when you search the databases provided by your library service you know that the content available has been through some sort of selection process. You can also usually check if  articles have been peer-reviewed which means they have been reviewed by other experts.
Use the best information from the experts for your assignments, think/write critically about what they say and you are steps closer to getting a good degree/ qualification.

Learning about research and information from the Covid-19 pandemic. No.2. The most current information is found online.

For the most current and up-to-date information, look online.

While books and journals are useful and valuable for background reading, they are not the best resources for keeping up to date where new discoveries are being made and communicated everyday as is the case with the fight against the Covid-19 virus.

The last few weeks have seen universities and research institutes create new websites, twitter feeds and blogs to help share information as quickly as possible so others working on the virus can benefit from what they have learned. Together by sharing information they hope to build on each other's research and create tests, treatments and vaccines as quickly as possible. They can also be share the information quickly globally. An example of  scientists and academics from different institutions working together in the UK is the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium. 

The Cambridge Fighting COVID website is sharing information through a weekly update (via zoom and then the recording is made available afterwards). It may be considered by some to be raw and unpolished communication in this form (it is not edited with revisions like a book) but it is current, useful and credible (i.e. provided by the scientists and researchers themselves).

Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay
https://pixabay.com/illustrations/covid-19-virus-coronavirus-pandemic-4922384/

How does this apply to student research?

When researching a topic for an assignment, even if you use books and journal articles, it is always useful to refer to the most up to date developments too. Look online for trustworthy websites and social media.

In order to keep up to date whilst pulling together resources for your research, you may want to consider:-

• following key twitter feeds, blogs or Instagram accounts etc. 
• setting up alerts in library/ LRC databases so you are emailed when something new appears in the database on your chosen topic. 
• setting up saved searches you can re- run at intervals to pick up anything new.
  In order to do the last 2 options, you will usually need to set up an account within the database (this may be a further step to your OpenAthens login).

For recent events, newspaper articles and reputable news websites will be the best place to look. Websites like the BBC will even have some analysis on how things are understood at the time as events unfold but be aware time may prove that analysis to be wrong. (A historian would find this useful in itself as evidence of how people were interpreting the events at the time).

Over time more and more research on Covid-19 will probably be published formally in journals and books by the experts involved but I suspect at the moment there isn't time!

Learning about research and information from the Covid-19 pandemic -No.1. Primary and secondary research

Learning about research and information from the Covid-19 pandemic

There is lots that can be learned from the current crisis about information in its various forms and how best to do academic research as we experience these strange times. This is the first in a mini series of blog posts which explore some key "lessons" inspired by examples from the current crisis. Not sure how? - well read on......

No. 1 Primary and secondary research

Recently there has been a lot of news footage showing scientists working in labs with test tubes and various bits of machinery. Lab technicians are trying to understand the new virus, how it affects different people, how to test for it, and how to develop a vaccine against it, for example.
These scientists (who are lecturers, students and academics) are carrying out primary research as opposed to secondary research because (to put it simply) they are actually doing the research on the virus themselves- they are not reading what someone else has written about it.

If you look at some of the new academic websites on Covid-19 research you will see that they also refer to journal articles and other resources they have read (quite possibly provided through their institution's library!) - on Coronaviruses or SARS, for example - to help them understand Covid-19.  This is secondary research because they are reading what other writer(s) have previously written up following the primary research they have carried out. The Covid-19 scientists then apply this knowledge when they decide how to carry out their primary research. They in time write up what they discover and this is read by others as secondary research.

Image by Michal Jarmoluk
https://pixabay.com/photos/laboratory-analysis-diagnostics-2815639/

Whilst most of the primary research is focusing on the science at the moment there are also other forms of primary research going on largely through collecting statistics (e.g. cases and deaths) and also through surveys and interviews (e.g. how are people feeling about lockdown? What is the impact on small businesses as a result of the crisis?).

How does this apply to me?
A number of UCP students (e.g. Psychosocial degree students) are about to start their Undergraduate Major Projects and some of them will be carrying out primary research through questionnaires and surveys. However,

• Primary research isn't enough on it's own, it relies on secondary research
• Secondary research is used to introduce and understand the topic- it provides context so you should include this in your project.
• Secondary research will help you formulate the right questions or research process in the first place to get the best results.
• Your secondary research will help throw a light on the results of the primary research and help you to draw conclusions at the end.

Why not follow the example of the Covid-19 scientists? It may not be a matter of life and death for you but it could get you a good grade!

Lockdown with the LRC

Lockdown Reading Group

On Wednesday 1st April, 5 members of the LRC Team came together for the first meeting of the LRC Lockdown Staff Reading Group.

At 2pm we met on a video conference call using Microsoft Teams. The group started with a general catch up, before introducing the books that we would each be reading.

Meet the books:

Lockdown Reading Group Books

Then it was time to read. It was a strange experience at first, reading quietly in your home whilst being able to see your friends reading their books on your tablet / laptop. Soon you got lost in your own story and in no time at all it was time to put your book down and sign off. Afterwards I felt relaxed and looked forward to the next meeting.

Set up your own group

You might like to set up your own Lockdown Reading Group. Or you could join us by sitting down to read a book of your choosing at 2pm every Wednesday for 30 minutes.

We used Microsoft Teams for our Lockdown Reading Group, but you could also use:

• Skype
• FaceTime
• Google Hangouts
• Zoom
• Facebook
• WhatsApp

If you decide to join in, email the LRC and let us know what you or your group members are reading: lrc@peterborough.ac.uk

Thursday 23rd April is World Book Night

On Thursday we will be celebrating Books and Reading by taking part in the Reading Hour between 7-8pm.

To join in simply choose a book / audio book to read / listen to during the hour.  You can do this by yourself, with other members of your household or via a virtual Reading Group.

Why not share what you have been reading by taking a photo and uploading it on social media using #ReadingHour.